Mortality decrease and mathematical limit of longevity
نویسنده
چکیده
We wish to verify that the mortality deceleration (or decrease) is a consequence of the bending of the shape parameter at old ages. This investigation is based upon the Weon model (the Weibull model with an age-dependent shape parameter) for human survival and mortality curves. According to the Weon model, we are well able to describe the mortality decrease after the mortality plateau, including the mortality deceleration. Furthermore, we are able to simply define the mathematical limit of longevity by the mortality decrease. From the demographic analysis of the historical trends in Switzerland (1876-2001) and Sweden (1861-2001), and the most recent trends in the other eleven developed countries (1996-2001), we confirm that the bending of the shape parameter after characteristic life is correlated with the mortality deceleration (or decrease). As a consequence, this bending of the shape parameters and the mortality deceleration is associated with the mathematical limit on longevity. These results suggest that the mathematical limit of longevity can be induced by the mortality deceleration (or decrease) in nature. These findings will give us a breakthrough for studying the mortality dynamics at the highest ages.
منابع مشابه
Complementarity principle on human longevity
In recent we introduced, developed and established a new concept, model, methodology and principle for studying human longevity in terms of demographic basis. We call the new model the " Weon model " , which is a general model modified from the Weibull model with an age-dependent shape parameter to describe human survival and mortality curves. We demonstrate the application of the Weon model to...
متن کاملUltimate limit to human longevity
Are there limits to human longevity? We suggest a new demographic model to describe human demographic trajectories. Specifically, the model mathematically defines the limits of longevity. Through the demographic analysis of trends for Sweden (between 1751 and 2002), Switzerland (between 1876 and 2002) and Japan (between 1950 and 1999), which are the longest-lived countries, we would like to dem...
متن کاملScale of Longevity Risks for Pension and Life Annuity Providers
Improved longevity is a human triumph. But improved longevity, when it occurs among those who are no longer economically productive, has a cost. Persistent decrease in mortality rates has become a major concern of annuity and pension providers, especially mortality improvements for post-retirement ages which have significant financial impact as far as survival benefits are concerned. There are ...
متن کاملShanghai Rising: Health Improvements as Measured by Avoidable Mortality since 2000
Over the past two decades, Shanghai, the largest megacity in China, has been coping with unprecedented growth of its economy and population while overcoming previous underinvestment in the health system by the central and local governments. We study the evolution of Shanghai’s healthcare system by analyzing “Avoidable Mortality” (AM) – deaths amenable to public health and healthcare interventio...
متن کاملMathematical Models for Longevity Risk Management
Aalto University, P.O. Box 11000, FI-00076 Aalto www.aalto.fi Author Helena Aro Name of the doctoral dissertation Mathematical Models for Longevity Risk Management Publisher School of Science Unit Department of Mathematics and Systems Analysis Series Aalto University publication series DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS 120/2013 Field of research Mathematics Manuscript submitted 12 April 2013 Date of the d...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2004